Intelligent Mobile Terminals

Mobile Internet, wireless data cards, WiFi, UMTS, 3G, HSDPA, WiMax... look how many standards we have developed. I often try to think which way the future will develop. So far we have been thinking of WiFi as more "Internet oriented" and GSM/3G as more "telephony oriented" technologies. But this is going to change... Since the first day of "cellular packet data" known as GPRS we have been using "telephony oriented" networks to access the Internet, and vice versa, by means of Skype et al, Internet networks have been providing us with voice communications. But still a notebook is more of an Internet device and a mobile phone is more of a telephony device. The divide is more and more blurred however...

With the commercialization of technologies like GAN - Generic Access Network (I wrote about UMA a few weeks ago) the meaning of "carrier" as both the service operator AND the access network is taking a split. Voice telephony operator no longer needs a radio access network at all. They can rely on public and private buildout of Internet connectivity and work via virtual tunnels established between the handset and their infrastructure. We can easily envision an opposite model - an independent RAN (Radio Access Network) serving connectivity to various service providers - both mobile voice and pure data operators, and today mobile carriers becoming more a service providers than network operators. This trend clearly reminds us about the Ten Laws Of The Telecosm Redux by George Gilder. Especially the one obout the dumb networks:

Dumb networks will prevail over smart networks. The future is all-fiber networks that do nothing but transmit bits. Intelligence belongs at the edges and endpoints.

This is our “life after television” paradigm. It separates content from conduit. If you have the best conduit, you will want everyone’s content on it. You won’t want to restrict it to your own content. On the other hand, if you have the best content, you will want it on everyone’s conduit. You won’t want to keep it on your own network. Players that try to combine content and conduit will eventually split apart and often bleed financially in the process (e.g., AOL-Time Warner).

George formulated the original law referring to the all-fiber networks, but the same applies to wireless. Radio Access Networks will be as dumb as possible. Being able to connect everyone with everything, without paying any attention to what bits are transferred and what services are run. As with UMA - this will be the task of the Terminal (a mobile phone, an Internet tablet, iPhone, Google Phone...) to use any available radio network and find its home services to connect. But the operators of services (like voice telephony service or presence service or messaging service) will no longer operate the network itself. At least those who follow the rule of separation of content (service) from conduit (access / pipe) will win. This has already happened in the ixed world - AOL is the proof. This will happen in the mobile world. The coming tsunami of MVNOs (virtual or "networkless" carriers) is the proof.

Intelligent terminals will be the key enablers. At the moment my Windows laptop can be considered as an intelligent network terminal. With automatic WiFi and https tunnels, the applications like Firefox or Microsoft Outlook work regardless of what exact connection I happen to have. Be it an EDGE phone connected via Bluetooth or an HSDPA phone over USB or WiFi - to and access point - connection or 3G data card or wired Ethernet. I never restart my Firefox sessions and emails keep on coming to my Outlook Inbox any my Google Talk presence status is visible. The only difference is speed - sometimes good enough, sometimes slow. WiMax? It will be just another conduit available, eventually embedded inside the computer, alongside with 3G HSDPA/HSUPA, WiFi, Bluetooth et al. My laptop will always find a way to connect. With UMA, the same trend is coming to devices presently known as mobile phones. The form factor will remain. We need a voice communication device in our pockets. But it will automatically negotiate the most optimal conduit to access the services it is subscribed to - availability, call notification, voice sessions etc. Roaming charges will be a short time challenge, but eventually the world will be flat [rate] for us to benefit.

I just wonder when we are going to see the current mobile carriers spinning off their radio networks as separate businesses. The expected efficiency and payoffs seem to be huge... But we may wait a year or two until this happens, as this direction must be a mindtwister for many decision makers...