Autonomous Flight

Humans fail. Computers do so too. But there is a difference. We are able to improve computers a lot. While we won't be improving humans that much.

Aviation is the area where computers have been introducing the biggest changes. I would even say computers allow the modern aviation to exist. From design of aircrafts through handling the air traffic through handling the operations of airlines. Nothing would be possible today, have we turned the machines off.

It is also impossible to fly a modern aircraft without a computer. The fact is pilots today operate computers that operate an aircraft. And in most cases the planes fly themselves. Humans are needed to go through a printed checklist and handshake some verbal commands with ground staff. Still verbal, because there is no unified digital plane-to-earth interface in place.

Humans seem today like artificially introduced parts of the system. Almost unnecessary. And they fail. Human error has been by far the most common cause of all aviation incidents and accidents. Computer failures were hitting the headlines, when they occurred. But they no longer do. Today it is either a fatal mechanical failure (in minority of cases) or human failure (in vast majority of cases, like the recent YAK-42 crash). And we also have failures of communications between computers and humans, the AF447 being the crown example.

There is nothing today preventing us from introducing pilot-less planes. We have mature technology able to take off, fly and land any plane. It is just a matter of putting all the pieces together. Backup systems. Remote supervision. Cryptography securing the earth-to-plane communications. Telemetry. Proliferation of advanced ILS systems on most airports. Ultimately we will have to convince passengers that pilot-less planes are safer, because nobody will mess with the computers. In the meantime there is the cargo segment that will be on the leading edge. UPS and FedEx already have the most advanced air traffic handling systems in their Louisville (SDF) and Memphis (MEM) hubs. Technologies like ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast) and CDAs (Continuous Descent Approaches) have been researched and developed by those parcel shipping companies (not military nor government!). They result in increased safety, reduced fuel burn and reduced flight time, but completely rely on computers. Even the best human pilot, not assisted by these systems, would not be capable of safely approaching SDF or MEM in the crowd of hundreds of computerized planes around.

Autonomously flying planes will revolutionize private / personal transportation too. Look. It is MUCH easier to build a plane that flies itself, than a car that drives itself.  A plane does not need to follow a road, stop on traffic lights, watch for pedestrians. It just needs an air traffic avoidance system (which is much simpler than an road traffic avoidance system) and instrumented landing pads. High skills needed to become a pilot have been the main roadblock in widespread expansion of personal aviation. So has the lack of experience of many private pilots resulting in tragic accidents. But when computers take over the cockpits, anybody will be able to fly.

Looking at the timeline ahead of us, I think we will have autonomous cargo flying over our heads in this decade. And then may be it will take until 2025 for passengers to board an autonomous plane. But it will happen. And I am already lining up to be one of the first passengers on such a flight. In the end, does it really differ from riding an automated elevator to the 35th floor in a hotel or an apartment building?