Printing Money
Time will tell if we are still facing a crisis or not, but one thing the pandemic has proven right is we are extremely efficient. We have the Internet which keeps us connected even when we cannot meet. We have automated and semi-automated manufacturing lines spinning all sorts of magic. We have automated harvesters taking care of crops. Energy is becoming more and more abundant and should be completely free within the next 20-30 years, especially when nuclear fusion is mastered at a commercial scale.
The development of the COVID vaccine itself is a huge feat. As first groups are getting their shots, it is less than a year now since the virus was first discovered. Of course we have had the RNA platforms ready, but the way the civilization has coped with the virus is unprecedented. And it owes everything to the information technology: computers, software and communications. This is probably the greatest human achievement since landing on the Moon.
The pandemic has also shown we are ready now to reduce the working week to 2-3 days. Of course whoever wants can still continue working as a hobby for a 5-day week, but generally this would not be needed.
Of course there is still the huge distribution problem, as despite oversupply of everything, including food, thousands and even millions are dying of starvation. This distribution is mainly a political problem, hence more difficult to solve than any economic and / or technology problem.
I am extremely curious how this all will play out on a global scale. But it all seems like there is no harm whatsoever of putting the global economy on neutral, as it keeps coasting not losing the speed at all...
"Energy is becoming more and more abundant and should be completely free within the next 20-30 years, especially when nuclear fusion is mastered at a commercial scale."
ReplyDeleteFree within 30 years? What do you exactly mean by that and why do you think so?
When we master nuclear fusion on a commercial scale, which basically means machines can produce infinite energy from nothing, the price of a [Joule] will go to zero. Similar effect like the price of a transistor is now zero (you can buy several billion for a few dollars).
ReplyDeleteAnd it is not that far away... Koreans have just achieved 20s run and plan for a 5 minute run in 2023. I think 2050 is a safe bet for free energy... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kstar-fusion-device-sets-record-210817623.html
Interesting comparison, but I will disagree - the demand for transistors and energy is not the same thing - the latter one is growing much faster.
ReplyDeleteWell, the global forecasts I have seen say the growth in energy consumption is about to flatten around 2030-2040 and start declining towards 2050... The technologies in use now are increasingly more efficient (e.g., in Formula 1 the engines have now reach 50% thermal efficiency, previously unheard of).
ReplyDeleteI also track TOKAMAK projects, and with this technology, battery powered cars totally make sense. Something big is coming and car producers want to be prepared for it. Fusion Energy will be one of the biggest humanity achievments and revolutionize our lifes. 2 day long working weeks definitelty will be more than enough with this (if any high taxes are not imposed which is not so obvious)
ReplyDeleteAnd with a 2-day working week we will be close to the cavemen... They supposedly (before the agricultural era) worked ~2 hours a day...
ReplyDelete