Energy Squeeze

It seems we are facing a long term energy squeeze. There are some macro trends and some local events leading int that.

The most impactful macro trend is the increasing rate of consumption of goods. We buy things and throw them away. And even if we recycle the materials they are made of, the recycling itself requires energy. Shortened lifespan of goods is multiplied by the number of people buying and throwing them away. The population growth we have experienced over the last 200 years can mostly be attributed to the average human life span which has doubled, or even tripled (in many cases) in the last century or so. In 1843 the life expectancy in Liverpool, UK, was 25 years. Yes, 25. Of course this was the extreme, but only between 1920 and 2020, the average human life span doubled. 

Then there are several events we can call local - such as droughts in China, which ave led to reduced output of Chinese hydroelectric power plants. That, combined with growing energy consumption, has led to the country-wide power shortage. Factories are being closed and shipment of goods made in China has slowed down significantly because ports are busy offloading ships with coal imported from Australia and other countries. The price for shipping a 40' container from Asia to North America has increased almost tenfold over the last year.  And the trend is still rising. Nuclear plants are not built fast enough and the hydropower problem will probably last for several years. This means China will most likely be forced to  slow down the industrial output.

At the same time we're seeing a 1000% spike in natural gas prices, which seems to be more of a temporary effect, due to combined drop in renewable output, especially the calm at the North Sea.

In the meantime the energy prices globally will increase significantly (they already have), which will have an obvious effect on prices of goods across the board (due to manufacturing and transport). And we will simply be buying less stuff. Due to shortage and prices. Which in the long run is not bad, but I anticipate there will be a lot of lamenting in media. It is hard to say there will be exactly seven lean years, like in the Genesis, but the way the current energy squeeze unfolds, does not indicate it to be a single season. And finally - my cynical comments do not apply to those living on the brink of poverty, as the price hikes will hit them badly.